Many of my constituents and supporters have contacted me over the last few weeks to ask for advice on how to vote in the European elections. I appreciate the confidence they have shown in me and the very many sincere messages of regret that I will not be standing for re-election.

I have decided that I will be voting for the Liberal Democrats on 23rd May. This is not a partisan choice I am working on the basis of this being the most likely way to maximise the ‘Remain’ vote and ultimately achieving a People’s Vote.

This is my thought process.

I will only vote for a Party with a clear and straightforward commitment to a People’s Vote and the option of Remaining in the EU. In the South West that means the Lib Dems, Change UK or the Greens. There are a number of factors to take into account when choosing between these three:

1) Do I support their general political direction (other than Brexit)? Lib Dems Yes, CUK Yes, Greens No
2) Do I think they have the infrastructure/experience to function as productive MEPs? Lib Dems yes, Greens Yes, CUK No
3) Do they have broad appeal, proven electoral success and campaign infrastructure? Lib Dems yes, Greens maybe, CUK No
4) Have they enjoyed recent success in the local elections? Lib Dem yes, Greens yes, CUK No
5) Who has the current political momentum and the most chance of maximising votes for Remain? Lib Dems.

As you can see, by my criteria the Lib Dems are by far the best choice. It doesn’t mean I’ve become a Lib Dem, but they have my vote on this one and that would be my advice to anyone who cares to ask.

Julie Girling MEP

ENDS

I have been following the online debate about how to maximise the “Remain Vote” in the coming European Elections with increasing dismay. I have decided to simplify the decision for the large numbers of constituents who have pledged their support to me personally by not accepting a place on the candidates list for Change UK. I would encourage my supporters to vote for candidates who have a proven record in the European Parliament and represent a party with a clear pro second referendum pledge.

I have been an MEP for 10 years and it has been a great privilege to serve the people of the South West and Gibraltar. I would like to thank you all for your support.

Julie Girling MEP

The gap between what Brexit promised and what the Government can deliver is finally obvious to everyone. Westminster is in chaos. Hard line Brexiters have rejected Brexit, they promise to renegotiate without having secured any agreement from Brussels to bring to the table. They don’t care, they want a no deal Brexit that they can blame on the EU. So far, it’s all going to plan for the ERG.

Now we have had to endure the farce of a no confidence vote. The loss of a government’s flagship policy would, in normal times, signal the end of that government. However, a change of Prime Minister does not alter the parliamentary arithmetic by a single jot and even a defeat in the high hundreds will not shift the incumbent Government. The problem is that the Prime Minister is interpreting the result of the confidence vote as a signal that she can carry on “business as usual”.

So, after reaching out across the House of Commons, though maybe not meeting with the Leader of the Opposition, the Prime Minister will go back to Brussels in an attempt to secure further concessions. A negative mandate from the rejected Withdrawal Agreement will give her a new line of argument, if nothing else. Furthermore, the conditions of the Grieve amendment – plan B within three days – would be satisfied. So, the can is kicked further down the road again.

It seems highly unlikely that any consensus will emerge. The mood in Brussels has shifted – nobody wants a damaging no deal – so pragmatic minds are moving on to the only possible alternative, the Prime Minister will have to ask for an extension of Article 50.

This is the next battleground within Parliament, it could fundamentally split the Conservative Party, and maybe the Labour Party too, but what alternative is there? Only one extension is likely to be granted so it needs to be long enough, at least a year, and this would require the UK to contest the European Elections. This throws up an interesting situation. Any UK involvement in the elections would constitute a de facto referendum and be fought on that basis. Each Party, including Labour, would have to adopt a clear unified position and campaign accordingly. Maybe new alignments would emerge, after all UKIP has only ever been a force in the European Parliament so why not a pro EU party putting the opposite view? Mrs May has been steadfastly against a People’s Vote and with this option she wouldn’t have to go back on her word (again!). The will of the people on Brexit would be clear.

I have argued for a People’s Vote since before the constitutional impasse became clear and still believe that the British people alone must decide the final position with relation to the European Union. Unfortunately, the Prime Minister’s obstinance and the Leader of Opposition’s refusal to listen to his membership has meant a positive People’s Vote has not yet been secured.

Perhaps, as with all things Brexit, we need to start thinking the unthinkable to break this damaging deadlock.

End

Below is the letter I sent to all South West Conservative MPs on Friday, 7 December ahead of the important vote scheduled for 11 December. This is based on the deal as it stands today.

Dear South West MP